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AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes PSV Eindhoven favourites to beat AZ Alkmaar away from home in the Eredivisie on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC. It gives AZ Alkmaar a 27% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives PSV Eindhoven 50%.
GossipBall expects 1.6 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 2.2 from PSV Eindhoven, so goals look likely: there is a 72% chance of three or more goals and a 71% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–3. AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 12% of outcomes, PSV Eindhoven in 21%.
AZ Alkmaar are 5th in the table with 23 points from 12 games; PSV Eindhoven are 1st with 26. In their last five league games AZ Alkmaar took 4 points (LDLLW) and PSV Eindhoven took 10 (WLDWW). This season AZ Alkmaar average 2.24 expected goals (xG) for and 1.26 against per game; PSV Eindhoven average 2.47 for and 1.33 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, AZ Alkmaar won 2, PSV Eindhoven won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, a win for PSV Eindhoven.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (9%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.7 goals in total: 1.58 for AZ Alkmaar and 2.15 for PSV Eindhoven.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, AZ Alkmaar won 2, PSV Eindhoven won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, a win for PSV Eindhoven.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
GossipBall gives AZ Alkmaar a 27% chance of winning, the draw 23% and PSV Eindhoven 50%. GossipBall makes PSV Eindhoven favourites to beat AZ Alkmaar away from home.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
GossipBall's predicted score is 1–3, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.6 for AZ Alkmaar, 2.2 for PSV Eindhoven). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%), 2–2 (7%).
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
GossipBall gives a 71% chance that both AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven score.
Will there be three or more goals in AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
There is a 72% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.7 goals in total (1.6 for AZ Alkmaar, 2.2 for PSV Eindhoven).
When is AZ Alkmaar vs PSV Eindhoven?
Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and PSV Eindhoven?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, AZ Alkmaar won 2, PSV Eindhoven won 7 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 7 Mar 2026, finished PSV Eindhoven 2–1 AZ Alkmaar, a win for PSV Eindhoven.