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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Real Madrid clear favourites to beat Alaves at home in La Liga on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC. It gives Real Madrid a 76% chance of winning, puts the draw at 15% and gives Alaves 8%.
GossipBall expects 2.4 goals from Real Madrid and 0.7 from Alaves, so goals look likely: there is a 60% chance of three or more goals and a 44% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 3–0. Real Madrid keep a clean sheet in 51% of outcomes, Alaves in 9%.
Real Madrid are 2nd in the table with 30 points from 12 games; Alaves are 12th with 13. In their last five league games Real Madrid took 15 points (WWWWW) and Alaves took 2 (LLDLD). This season Real Madrid average 2.47 expected goals (xG) for and 0.94 against per game; Alaves average 1.21 for and 1.38 against.
In 8 league meetings since 2021, Real Madrid won 8, Alaves won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves, a win for Real Madrid.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 2–0 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total: 2.42 for Real Madrid and 0.67 for Alaves.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 8 league meetings since 2021, Real Madrid won 8, Alaves won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves, a win for Real Madrid.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
GossipBall gives Real Madrid a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Alaves 8%. GossipBall makes Real Madrid clear favourites to beat Alaves at home.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
GossipBall's predicted score is 3–0, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.4 for Real Madrid, 0.7 for Alaves). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 2–0 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 3–0 (11%).
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
GossipBall gives a 44% chance that both Real Madrid and Alaves score.
Will there be three or more goals in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
There is a 60% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.1 goals in total (2.4 for Real Madrid, 0.7 for Alaves).
When is Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Kick-off is Saturday 28 November 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Alaves?
In 8 league meetings since 2021, Real Madrid won 8, Alaves won 0 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 21 Apr 2026, finished Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves, a win for Real Madrid.