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Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Paris Saint-Germain favourites to beat Toulouse away from home in Ligue 1 on Friday 4 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It gives Toulouse a 21% chance of winning, puts the draw at 23% and gives Paris Saint-Germain 56%.
GossipBall expects 1.1 goals from Toulouse and 1.9 from Paris Saint-Germain, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 57% chance of three or more goals and a 57% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2. Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 15% of outcomes, Paris Saint-Germain in 34%.
Toulouse are 12th in the table with 13 points from 10 games; Paris Saint-Germain are 1st with 23. In their last five league games Toulouse took 8 points (DWDLW) and Paris Saint-Germain took 15 (WWWWW). This season Toulouse average 1.80 expected goals (xG) for and 1.23 against per game; Paris Saint-Germain average 2.60 for and 1.20 against.
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Toulouse won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 Apr 2026, finished Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Toulouse, a win for Paris Saint-Germain.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (11%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total: 1.08 for Toulouse and 1.91 for Paris Saint-Germain.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 8 league meetings since 2022, Toulouse won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 Apr 2026, finished Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Toulouse, a win for Paris Saint-Germain.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain?
GossipBall gives Toulouse a 21% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paris Saint-Germain 56%. GossipBall makes Paris Saint-Germain favourites to beat Toulouse away from home.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain?
GossipBall's predicted score is 1–2, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.1 for Toulouse, 1.9 for Paris Saint-Germain). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (11%), 1–2 (10%), 0–2 (9%).
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain?
GossipBall gives a 57% chance that both Toulouse and Paris Saint-Germain score.
Will there be three or more goals in Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain?
There is a 57% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (1.1 for Toulouse, 1.9 for Paris Saint-Germain).
When is Toulouse vs Paris Saint-Germain?
Kick-off is Friday 4 December 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Paris Saint-Germain?
In 8 league meetings since 2022, Toulouse won 1, Paris Saint-Germain won 6 and 1 was drawn; the most recent, on 3 Apr 2026, finished Paris Saint-Germain 3–1 Toulouse, a win for Paris Saint-Germain.