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Arsenal vs Manchester City prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Arsenal favourites to beat Manchester City at home in the Premier League on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC. It gives Arsenal a 46% chance of winning, puts the draw at 29% and gives Manchester City 25%.
GossipBall expects 1.5 goals from Arsenal and 1.0 from Manchester City, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 45% chance of three or more goals and a 50% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 36% of outcomes, Manchester City in 23%.
Arsenal are 1st in the table with 27 points from 10 games; Manchester City are 3rd with 21. In their last five league games Arsenal took 15 points (WWWWW) and Manchester City took 6 (WWLLL). This season Arsenal average 1.61 expected goals (xG) for and 0.76 against per game; Manchester City average 2.04 for and 1.25 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Arsenal won 2, Manchester City won 5 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, finished Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal, a win for Manchester City.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (14%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total: 1.45 for Arsenal and 1.01 for Manchester City.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Arsenal won 2, Manchester City won 5 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, finished Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal, a win for Manchester City.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?
GossipBall gives Arsenal a 46% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Manchester City 25%. GossipBall makes Arsenal favourites to beat Manchester City at home.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.5 for Arsenal, 1.0 for Manchester City). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (14%), 1–0 (11%), 0–0 (10%).
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
GossipBall gives a 50% chance that both Arsenal and Manchester City score.
Will there be three or more goals in Arsenal vs Manchester City?
There is a 45% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.5 goals in total (1.5 for Arsenal, 1.0 for Manchester City).
When is Arsenal vs Manchester City?
Kick-off is Sunday 29 November 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Manchester City?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Arsenal won 2, Manchester City won 5 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 19 Apr 2026, finished Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal, a win for Manchester City.