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Manchester City vs Chelsea prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Manchester City clear favourites to beat Chelsea at home in the Premier League on Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC. It gives Manchester City a 61% chance of winning, puts the draw at 22% and gives Chelsea 17%.
GossipBall expects 2.1 goals from Manchester City and 1.0 from Chelsea, so goals look likely: there is a 62% chance of three or more goals and a 58% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Manchester City keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Chelsea in 12%.
Manchester City are 3rd in the table with 21 points from 10 games; Chelsea are 5th with 16. In their last five league games Manchester City took 6 points (WWLLL) and Chelsea took 9 (WWLWL). This season Manchester City average 2.04 expected goals (xG) for and 1.25 against per game; Chelsea average 1.35 for and 1.50 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Manchester City won 7, Chelsea won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Chelsea 0–3 Manchester City, a win for Manchester City.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 14 November 2026, 03:12 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (10%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total: 2.13 for Manchester City and 1.05 for Chelsea.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Manchester City won 7, Chelsea won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Chelsea 0–3 Manchester City, a win for Manchester City.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Manchester City vs Chelsea?
GossipBall gives Manchester City a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chelsea 17%. GossipBall makes Manchester City clear favourites to beat Chelsea at home.
What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Chelsea?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.1 for Manchester City, 1.0 for Chelsea). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).
Will both teams score in Manchester City vs Chelsea?
GossipBall gives a 58% chance that both Manchester City and Chelsea score.
Will there be three or more goals in Manchester City vs Chelsea?
There is a 62% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.2 goals in total (2.1 for Manchester City, 1.0 for Chelsea).
When is Manchester City vs Chelsea?
Kick-off is Saturday 12 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Manchester City and Chelsea?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Manchester City won 7, Chelsea won 0 and 3 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Chelsea 0–3 Manchester City, a win for Manchester City.