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Alverca vs Moreirense prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Alverca slight favourites to beat Moreirense at home in the Primeira Liga on Monday 7 December 2026 at 20:15 UTC. It gives Alverca a 43% chance of winning, puts the draw at 27% and gives Moreirense 30%.
GossipBall expects 1.3 goals from Alverca and 1.1 from Moreirense, so a tight, low-scoring game is slightly more likely: there is a 43% chance of three or more goals and a 48% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Alverca keep a clean sheet in 35% of outcomes, Moreirense in 26%.
Alverca are 11th in the table with 12 points from 11 games; Moreirense are 9th with 14. In their last five league games Alverca took 7 points (WWLLD) and Moreirense took 7 (DLWWL). This season Alverca average 1.30 expected goals (xG) for and 1.56 against per game; Moreirense average 0.73 for and 1.67 against.
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Alverca won 1, Moreirense won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, finished Alverca 2–1 Moreirense, a win for Alverca.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total: 1.33 for Alverca and 1.05 for Moreirense.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 2 league meetings since 2025, Alverca won 1, Moreirense won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, finished Alverca 2–1 Moreirense, a win for Alverca.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Alverca vs Moreirense?
GossipBall gives Alverca a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Moreirense 30%. GossipBall makes Alverca slight favourites to beat Moreirense at home.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Moreirense?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.3 for Alverca, 1.1 for Moreirense). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%).
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Moreirense?
GossipBall gives a 48% chance that both Alverca and Moreirense score.
Will there be three or more goals in Alverca vs Moreirense?
There is a 43% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.4 goals in total (1.3 for Alverca, 1.1 for Moreirense).
When is Alverca vs Moreirense?
Kick-off is Monday 7 December 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Moreirense?
In 2 league meetings since 2025, Alverca won 1, Moreirense won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 17 Jan 2026, finished Alverca 2–1 Moreirense, a win for Alverca.