Primeira LigaMatchday 12Monday 30 November 2026 ·

Benfica vs Famalicão prediction

69%
home win
predicted score
2–1
9.4% chance
19%
draw
12%
away win
Win probability: home 69%, draw 19%, away 12%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Famalicão at home in the Primeira Liga on Monday 30 November 2026 at 20:15 UTC. It gives Benfica a 69% chance of winning, puts the draw at 19% and gives Famalicão 12%.

GossipBall expects 2.0 goals from Benfica and 0.7 from Famalicão, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 51% chance of three or more goals and a 43% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Benfica keep a clean sheet in 50% of outcomes, Famalicão in 13%.

Benfica are 2nd in the table with 28 points from 11 games; Famalicão are 10th with 13. In their last five league games Benfica took 12 points (LWWWW) and Famalicão took 9 (WLWLW). This season Benfica average 2.13 expected goals (xG) for and 0.77 against per game; Famalicão average 0.90 for and 1.25 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Benfica won 6, Famalicão won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
6
5
2
<1
1
14
9
3
<1
<1
2
13
9
3
<1
<1
3
9
6
2
<1
4
5
3
1
<1
5
2
1
<1
<1
Rows: Benfica goalsColumns: Famalicão goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (14%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–013.5%
2–013.5%
2–19.4%
3–09.1%
1–19.0%
3–16.4%
1 or more goals
94%
2 or more goals
75%
3 or more goals
51%
4 or more goals
29%
5 or more goals
14%
Both teams score
43%

GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total: 2.03 for Benfica and 0.70 for Famalicão.

Winning margin

Explained
Benfica by 3
13%
Benfica by 2
21%
Benfica by 1
25%
Draw
19%
Famalicão by 3
1%
Famalicão by 2
2%
Famalicão by 1
9%

Each team's goals

Explained
Benfica expected goals2.03
Famalicão expected goals0.70
Benfica keep a clean sheet50%
Famalicão keep a clean sheet13%
Benfica win without conceding43%
Famalicão win without conceding7%
Benfica score 2 or more60%
Famalicão score 2 or more16%

Recent form

Benfica
W @ Estrela3–2 · 8 Nov
W v Alverca1–0 · 2 Nov
W @ Santa Clara2–1 · 26 Oct
W v Vitória SC2–0 · 11 Oct
L @ Porto1–3 · 20 Sep
Famalicão
W v Arouca1–0 · 6 Nov
L @ Sp Braga0–3 · 1 Nov
W @ Rio Ave4–0 · 25 Oct
L v Alverca1–4 · 12 Oct
W @ Nacional4–0 · 19 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Benfica won 6, Famalicão won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

Famalicão 2–2 Benfica2 May 2026
Benfica 1–0 Famalicão22 Dec 2025
Benfica 4–0 Famalicão17 Jan 2025
Famalicão 2–0 Benfica11 Aug 2024
Famalicão 2–0 Benfica5 May 2024
Benfica 3–0 Famalicão29 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

BENFAM
2.73
Goals
1.36
0.91
Conceded
1.27
2.13
xG
0.90
0.77
xG against
1.25
18.3
Shots
10.0
6.1
On target
3.4
7.5
Corners
5.3
1.82
Yellow cards
2.27
46%
Clean sheets
36%
55%
Both score
46%
82%
3+ goals
55%

Questions and answers

Who will win Benfica vs Famalicão?

GossipBall gives Benfica a 69% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Famalicão 12%. GossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Famalicão at home.

What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Famalicão?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.0 for Benfica, 0.7 for Famalicão). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (14%), 2–0 (13%), 2–1 (9%).

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Famalicão?

GossipBall gives a 43% chance that both Benfica and Famalicão score.

Will there be three or more goals in Benfica vs Famalicão?

There is a 51% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.7 goals in total (2.0 for Benfica, 0.7 for Famalicão).

When is Benfica vs Famalicão?

Kick-off is Monday 30 November 2026 at 20:15 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Famalicão?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Benfica won 6, Famalicão won 2 and 2 were drawn; the most recent, on 2 May 2026, was a 2–2 draw.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC