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Nacional vs Benfica prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Nacional away from home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 15:30 UTC. It gives Nacional a 11% chance of winning, puts the draw at 18% and gives Benfica 71%.
GossipBall expects 0.7 goals from Nacional and 2.2 from Benfica, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 56% chance of three or more goals and a 46% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 0–3. Nacional keep a clean sheet in 11% of outcomes, Benfica in 48%.
Nacional are 13th in the table with 10 points from 11 games; Benfica are 2nd with 28. In their last five league games Nacional took 6 points (LLWLW) and Benfica took 12 (LWWWW). This season Nacional average 1.02 expected goals (xG) for and 1.62 against per game; Benfica average 2.13 for and 0.77 against.
In 4 league meetings since 2024, Nacional won 0, Benfica won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Benfica 2–0 Nacional, a win for Benfica.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 0–2 (13%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total: 0.73 for Nacional and 2.21 for Benfica.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 4 league meetings since 2024, Nacional won 0, Benfica won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Benfica 2–0 Nacional, a win for Benfica.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Nacional vs Benfica?
GossipBall gives Nacional a 11% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Benfica 71%. GossipBall makes Benfica clear favourites to beat Nacional away from home.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Benfica?
GossipBall's predicted score is 0–3, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (0.7 for Nacional, 2.2 for Benfica). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 0–2 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 0–3 (9%).
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Benfica?
GossipBall gives a 46% chance that both Nacional and Benfica score.
Will there be three or more goals in Nacional vs Benfica?
There is a 56% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.9 goals in total (0.7 for Nacional, 2.2 for Benfica).
When is Nacional vs Benfica?
Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Benfica?
In 4 league meetings since 2024, Nacional won 0, Benfica won 4 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Benfica 2–0 Nacional, a win for Benfica.