Primeira LigaMatchday 12Sunday 29 November 2026 ·

Porto vs Sporting CP prediction

41%
home win
predicted score
2–1
8.6% chance
26%
draw
34%
away win
Win probability: home 41%, draw 26%, away 34%

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Match preview

GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbers

GossipBall makes Porto slight favourites to beat Sporting CP at home in the Primeira Liga on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It gives Porto a 41% chance of winning, puts the draw at 26% and gives Sporting CP 34%.

GossipBall expects 1.4 goals from Porto and 1.2 from Sporting CP, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 47% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Porto keep a clean sheet in 30% of outcomes, Sporting CP in 26%.

Porto are 1st in the table with 33 points from 11 games; Sporting CP are 3rd with 24. In their last five league games Porto took 15 points (WWWWW) and Sporting CP took 10 (DWLWW). This season Porto average 2.16 expected goals (xG) for and 0.79 against per game; Sporting CP average 1.99 for and 0.78 against.

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Porto won 3, Sporting CP won 2 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 9 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC

Scoreline chances

How to read
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
10
6
2
<1
<1
1
11
12
8
3
<1
<1
2
7
9
5
2
<1
<1
3
3
4
2
<1
<1
4
1
1
<1
<1
<1
5
<1
<1
<1
Rows: Porto goalsColumns: Sporting CP goals

Gold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–1 (12%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.

Most common scorelines

1–112.3%
1–010.7%
0–19.6%
2–18.6%
1–27.6%
0–07.3%
1 or more goals
93%
2 or more goals
72%
3 or more goals
47%
4 or more goals
26%
5 or more goals
12%
Both teams score
52%

GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total: 1.36 for Porto and 1.21 for Sporting CP.

Winning margin

Explained
Porto by 3
5%
Porto by 2
12%
Porto by 1
22%
Draw
26%
Sporting CP by 3
3%
Sporting CP by 2
9%
Sporting CP by 1
20%

Each team's goals

Explained
Porto expected goals1.36
Sporting CP expected goals1.21
Porto keep a clean sheet30%
Sporting CP keep a clean sheet26%
Porto win without conceding22%
Sporting CP win without conceding18%
Porto score 2 or more39%
Sporting CP score 2 or more34%

Recent form

Porto
W @ Vitória SC2–1 · 8 Nov
W v Estoril4–0 · 31 Oct
W @ Gil Vicente1–0 · 24 Oct
W @ Maritimo2–1 · 10 Oct
W v Benfica3–1 · 20 Sep
Sporting CP
W v Moreirense1–0 · 7 Nov
W @ Casa Pia2–0 · 30 Oct
L v Academico Viseu1–2 · 25 Oct
W @ Sp Braga3–1 · 9 Oct
D v Arouca2–2 · 19 Sep

Head to head

Full record →

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Porto won 3, Sporting CP won 2 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 9 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

Porto 1–1 Sporting CP9 Feb 2026
Sporting CP 1–2 Porto30 Aug 2025
Porto 1–1 Sporting CP7 Feb 2025
Sporting CP 2–0 Porto31 Aug 2024
Porto 2–2 Sporting CP28 Apr 2024
Sporting CP 2–0 Porto18 Dec 2023

Season averages per game

FCPSPO
2.45
Goals
2.18
0.45
Conceded
1.00
2.16
xG
1.99
0.79
xG against
0.78
16.3
Shots
15.7
6.5
On target
5.8
6.8
Corners
5.4
1.27
Yellow cards
2.36
55%
Clean sheets
36%
46%
Both score
64%
64%
3+ goals
64%

Questions and answers

Who will win Porto vs Sporting CP?

GossipBall gives Porto a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sporting CP 34%. GossipBall makes Porto slight favourites to beat Sporting CP at home.

What is the predicted score for Porto vs Sporting CP?

GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (1.4 for Porto, 1.2 for Sporting CP). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).

Will both teams score in Porto vs Sporting CP?

GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Porto and Sporting CP score.

Will there be three or more goals in Porto vs Sporting CP?

There is a 47% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 2.6 goals in total (1.4 for Porto, 1.2 for Sporting CP).

When is Porto vs Sporting CP?

Kick-off is Sunday 29 November 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

What is the head-to-head record between Porto and Sporting CP?

In 10 league meetings since 2021, Porto won 3, Sporting CP won 2 and 5 were drawn; the most recent, on 9 Feb 2026, was a 1–1 draw.

GossipBall is a football statistics site, not a gambling service. We do not offer, promote, advertise or link to betting or gambling of any kind, show no bookmaker odds and receive no money from gambling companies. Predictions are statistical probabilities for information and entertainment only; they are not advice of any kind. Legal notice

Not affiliated with any league, club or governing body; names are used for identification only and no club or league logos are shown. Data: football-data.co.uk, football-data.org and openfootball. Photos: Sebastian Schuster, Victor, Lukáš Parničan and nika tchokhonelidze on Unsplash. Flags: circle-flags (MIT licence).

Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC · About · Legal & privacy · Guide · Previous predictions · Track record · Daily quiz · Weekly email · info@gossipball.com ·

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About GossipBallLegal & privacy Updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC