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Sp Braga vs Arouca prediction
Predict the score
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Match preview
GossipBall's parrot has been crunching the numbersGossipBall makes Sp Braga clear favourites to beat Arouca at home in the Primeira Liga on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It gives Sp Braga a 63% chance of winning, puts the draw at 20% and gives Arouca 17%.
GossipBall expects 2.0 goals from Sp Braga and 0.9 from Arouca, so the goals line is finely balanced: there is a 57% chance of three or more goals and a 52% chance that both teams score. GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1. Sp Braga keep a clean sheet in 40% of outcomes, Arouca in 13%.
Sp Braga are 8th in the table with 17 points from 11 games; Arouca are 5th with 20. In their last five league games Sp Braga took 6 points (LLLWW) and Arouca took 10 (DWWWL). This season Sp Braga average 1.36 expected goals (xG) for and 0.65 against per game; Arouca average 1.13 for and 1.15 against.
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Sp Braga won 9, Arouca won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Sp Braga 1–0 Arouca, a win for Sp Braga.
GossipBall analysis · based on five seasons of results and expected goals · updated 13 November 2026, 22:23 UTC
Scoreline chances
How to readGold outline: the predicted score, built from the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (how). The single most common scoreline is 1–0 (11%), because a win is spread over many scorelines while a draw piles up on a few.
Most common scorelines
Goals
ExplainedGossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total: 2.04 for Sp Braga and 0.93 for Arouca.
Winning margin
ExplainedEach team's goals
ExplainedRecent form
Head to head
Full record →In 10 league meetings since 2021, Sp Braga won 9, Arouca won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Sp Braga 1–0 Arouca, a win for Sp Braga.
Season averages per game
Questions and answers
Who will win Sp Braga vs Arouca?
GossipBall gives Sp Braga a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Arouca 17%. GossipBall makes Sp Braga clear favourites to beat Arouca at home.
What is the predicted score for Sp Braga vs Arouca?
GossipBall's predicted score is 2–1, based on the likeliest result and each team's expected goals (2.0 for Sp Braga, 0.9 for Arouca). Across all results, the most common scorelines are 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Will both teams score in Sp Braga vs Arouca?
GossipBall gives a 52% chance that both Sp Braga and Arouca score.
Will there be three or more goals in Sp Braga vs Arouca?
There is a 57% chance of three or more goals. GossipBall expects 3.0 goals in total (2.0 for Sp Braga, 0.9 for Arouca).
When is Sp Braga vs Arouca?
Kick-off is Saturday 5 December 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
What is the head-to-head record between Sp Braga and Arouca?
In 10 league meetings since 2021, Sp Braga won 9, Arouca won 1 and 0 were drawn; the most recent, on 12 Apr 2026, finished Sp Braga 1–0 Arouca, a win for Sp Braga.