Italy · 2026–27

Serie A season simulation

3.11goals per game

46%home wins

51%favourite came in
(test on last season)

Playing out the rest of Serie A season 10,000 times, GossipBall makes Inter title favourites at 80%, ahead of Roma (15%). Venezia (56%), Monza (55%) and Lecce (54%) are the likeliest to finish in the bottom three.

The rest of the season played out 10,000 times with GossipBall's probabilities.How this works

Team	Exp. pts	Win league	Top 4	Bottom 3
Inter	86.7	80%	100%	0%
Roma	77.8	15%	92%	0%
Como	70.7	2%	60%	0%
Milan	68.8	1%	48%	0%
Lazio	68.7	1%	47%	0%
Juventus	64.9	0.3%	25%	0%
Napoli	63.8	0.2%	21%	0%
Atalanta	56.9	0.0%	4%	0%
Bologna	56.7	0%	3%	0%
Frosinone	53.3	0%	1%	0%
Fiorentina	47.5	0%	0%	2%
Cagliari	44.9	0%	0%	4%
Genoa	44.8	0%	0%	4%
Torino	43.7	0%	0%	5%
Sassuolo	38.7	0%	0%	23%
Parma	34.1	0%	0%	47%
Udinese	33.8	0%	0%	50%
Lecce	33.4	0%	0%	54%
Venezia	33.0	0%	0%	56%
Monza	32.9	0%	0%	55%

Finishing position chances

Darker squares are likelier finishing positions; numbers are percentages.

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
Inter	80	16
Roma	15	48	19	9
Como		13	24	21	16	11	7
Milan		9	18	20	18	15	10	5
Lazio		8	17	20	18	15	10	6
Juventus			9	13	17	19	18	11	6
Napoli			7	12	16	18	18	13	7
Atalanta						8	13	20	20	14	9
Bologna						8	12	19	20	16	9
Frosinone							7	13	18	20	15	9	5
Fiorentina									9	14	18	17	13	9	6
Cagliari										8	13	16	16	14	11	7
Genoa										9	13	16	16	14	10	6
Torino										7	11	15	17	16	11	8	5
Sassuolo												6	10	13	15	14	12	10	7	5
Parma														7	10	13	15	16	16	15
Udinese														6	9	13	14	16	17	17
Lecce														5	8	12	15	17	19	18
Venezia														6	8	12	13	16	18	22
Monza															9	11	15	16	18	21