Germany · 2026–27
Bundesliga season simulation
3.56goals per game
51%home wins
55%favourites won
last season
last season
Playing out the rest of the Bundesliga season 10,000 times, GossipBall makes Bayern Munich title favourites at 95%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund (4%). Schalke 04 (72%), Union Berlin (44%) and Paderborn (43%) are the likeliest to finish in the bottom three.
The rest of the season played out 10,000 times with GossipBall's probabilities.How this works
| Team | Exp. pts | Win league | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 82.5 | 95% | 100% | 0% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 67.8 | 4% | 96% | 0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 62.3 | 0.8% | 82% | 0% |
| RB Leipzig | 59.2 | 0.2% | 68% | 0% |
| Stuttgart | 51.7 | 0.0% | 20% | 0% |
| Freiburg | 49.8 | 0% | 13% | 1% |
| Hoffenheim | 47.2 | 0% | 6% | 2% |
| Mainz | 46.0 | 0% | 5% | 3% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 45.8 | 0% | 4% | 4% |
| Werder Bremen | 44.0 | 0% | 3% | 6% |
| Elversberg | 42.1 | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Augsburg | 40.6 | 0% | 1% | 14% |
| Hamburg | 38.2 | 0% | 0% | 26% |
| FC Köln | 36.4 | 0% | 0% | 34% |
| Gladbach | 35.3 | 0% | 0% | 41% |
| Paderborn | 35.1 | 0% | 0% | 43% |
| Union Berlin | 35.0 | 0% | 0% | 44% |
| Schalke 04 | 30.2 | 0% | 0% | 72% |
Finishing position chances
Darker squares are likelier finishing positions; numbers are percentages.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 95 | |||||||||||||||||
| Borussia Dortmund | 58 | 24 | 10 | |||||||||||||||
| Bayer Leverkusen | 22 | 36 | 23 | 10 | ||||||||||||||
| RB Leipzig | 12 | 26 | 29 | 15 | 8 | |||||||||||||
| Stuttgart | 6 | 13 | 20 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 7 | |||||||||||
| Freiburg | 9 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Hoffenheim | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Mainz | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||
| Werder Bremen | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||
| Elversberg | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | |||||||||
| Augsburg | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | |||||||
| Hamburg | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 6 | ||||||||
| FC Köln | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 9 | |||||||||
| Gladbach | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | ||||||||||
| Paderborn | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 12 | ||||||||||
| Union Berlin | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 14 | ||||||||||
| Schalke 04 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 21 | 39 |