France · 2026–27
Ligue 1 season simulation
2.97goals per game
44%home wins
52%favourites won
last season
last season
Playing out the rest of the Ligue 1 season 10,000 times, GossipBall makes Paris Saint-Germain title favourites at 90%, ahead of Monaco (2%). Troyes (91%), Le Havre (76%) and Angers (70%) are the likeliest to finish in the bottom three.
The rest of the season played out 10,000 times with GossipBall's probabilities.How this works
| Team | Exp. pts | Win league | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 74.0 | 90% | 100% | 0% |
| Monaco | 57.5 | 2% | 53% | 0% |
| Lens | 56.9 | 2% | 50% | 0% |
| Lyon | 56.5 | 2% | 49% | 0% |
| Lille | 56.2 | 2% | 46% | 0% |
| Rennes | 54.7 | 0.9% | 36% | 0% |
| Marseille | 53.1 | 0.6% | 29% | 0% |
| Paris FC | 52.4 | 0.4% | 23% | 0% |
| Toulouse | 45.1 | 0.1% | 4% | 3% |
| Strasbourg | 44.8 | 0.0% | 3% | 4% |
| Lorient | 43.8 | 0% | 2% | 4% |
| Nice | 43.1 | 0.0% | 2% | 6% |
| Brest | 42.5 | 0% | 2% | 6% |
| Auxerre | 39.7 | 0% | 0% | 14% |
| Le Mans | 37.3 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| Angers | 30.6 | 0% | 0% | 70% |
| Le Havre | 29.0 | 0% | 0% | 76% |
| Troyes | 25.7 | 0% | 0% | 91% |
Finishing position chances
Darker squares are likelier finishing positions; numbers are percentages.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 90 | 8 | ||||||||||||||||
| Monaco | 19 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||||
| Lens | 17 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 6 | |||||||||||
| Lyon | 16 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 7 | |||||||||||
| Lille | 14 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | |||||||||||
| Rennes | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Marseille | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||
| Paris FC | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 5 | ||||||||
| Toulouse | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Strasbourg | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||
| Lorient | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6 | |||||||||
| Nice | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Brest | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Auxerre | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 9 | |||||||||||
| Le Mans | 6 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 14 | 8 | |||||||||||
| Angers | 7 | 15 | 27 | 28 | 16 | |||||||||||||
| Le Havre | 6 | 11 | 22 | 29 | 25 | |||||||||||||
| Troyes | 13 | 25 | 53 |