Spain · 2026–27
La Liga season simulation
3.01goals per game
44%home wins
53%favourites won
last season
last season
Playing out the rest of the La Liga season 10,000 times, GossipBall makes Barcelona title favourites at 78%, ahead of Real Madrid (20%). Malaga (93%), Santander (51%) and Valencia (31%) are the likeliest to finish in the bottom three.
The rest of the season played out 10,000 times with GossipBall's probabilities.How this works
| Team | Exp. pts | Win league | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 90.8 | 78% | 100% | 0% |
| Real Madrid | 84.2 | 20% | 100% | 0% |
| Atlético Madrid | 76.3 | 3% | 97% | 0% |
| Real Betis | 64.1 | 0.0% | 49% | 0% |
| Villarreal | 60.6 | 0.0% | 29% | 0% |
| Real Sociedad | 57.4 | 0% | 13% | 0% |
| Athletic Club | 52.7 | 0% | 5% | 1% |
| Sevilla | 52.5 | 0% | 4% | 1% |
| Celta Vigo | 48.5 | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Deportivo La Coruña | 47.3 | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Elche | 46.5 | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| Alaves | 45.5 | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Osasuna | 45.0 | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Levante | 44.5 | 0% | 0% | 12% |
| Rayo Vallecano | 43.7 | 0% | 0% | 15% |
| Getafe | 40.3 | 0% | 0% | 30% |
| Espanyol | 40.1 | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| Valencia | 40.1 | 0% | 0% | 31% |
| Santander | 37.2 | 0% | 0% | 51% |
| Malaga | 28.0 | 0% | 0% | 93% |
Finishing position chances
Darker squares are likelier finishing positions; numbers are percentages.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 78 | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Real Madrid | 20 | 62 | 17 | |||||||||||||||||
| Atlético Madrid | 17 | 67 | 10 | |||||||||||||||||
| Real Betis | 8 | 40 | 24 | 12 | 7 | |||||||||||||||
| Villarreal | 25 | 27 | 18 | 10 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| Real Sociedad | 12 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 11 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||||||
| Athletic Club | 9 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||||
| Sevilla | 8 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |||||||||||
| Celta Vigo | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Deportivo La Coruña | 6 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Elche | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||
| Alaves | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Osasuna | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | |||||||||
| Levante | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||
| Rayo Vallecano | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | |||||||||
| Getafe | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | ||||||||||||
| Espanyol | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | ||||||||||||
| Valencia | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 12 | ||||||||||||
| Santander | 6 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 11 | |||||||||||||
| Malaga | 7 | 16 | 71 |