England · 2026–27
Premier League season simulation
2.77goals per game
39%home wins
48%favourites won
last season
last season
Playing out the rest of the Premier League season 10,000 times, GossipBall makes Arsenal title favourites at 57%, ahead of Manchester City (41%). Ipswich (81%), Coventry (67%) and Sunderland (36%) are the likeliest to finish in the bottom three.
The rest of the season played out 10,000 times with GossipBall's probabilities.How this works
| Team | Exp. pts | Win league | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 82.5 | 57% | 100% | 0% |
| Manchester City | 80.3 | 41% | 99% | 0% |
| Liverpool | 66.3 | 1% | 73% | 0% |
| Brighton | 61.9 | 0.5% | 52% | 0% |
| Chelsea | 57.1 | 0.1% | 22% | 0% |
| Aston Villa | 55.2 | 0.0% | 15% | 1% |
| Brentford | 53.5 | 0% | 10% | 1% |
| Newcastle United | 52.9 | 0% | 8% | 2% |
| Bournemouth | 52.8 | 0% | 9% | 2% |
| Leeds | 49.8 | 0% | 4% | 4% |
| Manchester United | 49.6 | 0% | 4% | 5% |
| Everton | 46.4 | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Nottingham Forest | 45.6 | 0% | 1% | 13% |
| Tottenham | 45.4 | 0% | 1% | 14% |
| Fulham | 44.7 | 0% | 1% | 15% |
| Hull | 44.2 | 0% | 1% | 17% |
| Crystal Palace | 41.4 | 0% | 0% | 32% |
| Sunderland | 40.5 | 0% | 0% | 36% |
| Coventry | 35.7 | 0% | 0% | 67% |
| Ipswich | 33.4 | 0% | 0% | 81% |
Finishing position chances
Darker squares are likelier finishing positions; numbers are percentages.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 57 | 37 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Manchester City | 41 | 49 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Liverpool | 8 | 42 | 21 | 12 | 6 | |||||||||||||||
| Brighton | 22 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 5 | ||||||||||||||
| Chelsea | 8 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | ||||||||||||
| Aston Villa | 9 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | ||||||||||||
| Brentford | 7 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | ||||||||||
| Newcastle United | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Bournemouth | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Leeds | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Manchester United | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | |||||||||
| Everton | 6 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | |||||||||
| Nottingham Forest | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Tottenham | 5 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Fulham | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||
| Hull | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Crystal Palace | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 7 | ||||||||||||
| Sunderland | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | ||||||||||||
| Coventry | 7 | 11 | 16 | 23 | 27 | |||||||||||||||
| Ipswich | 7 | 13 | 24 | 44 |