Portugal · 2026–27
Primeira Liga season simulation
2.74goals per game
37%home wins
55%favourites won
last season
last season
Playing out the rest of the Primeira Liga season 10,000 times, GossipBall makes Porto title favourites at 47%, ahead of Benfica (39%). Rio Ave (56%), Casa Pia (54%) and Estoril (50%) are the likeliest to finish in the bottom three.
The rest of the season played out 10,000 times with GossipBall's probabilities.How this works
| Team | Exp. pts | Win league | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 79.4 | 47% | 100% | 0% |
| Benfica | 78.0 | 39% | 100% | 0% |
| Sporting CP | 73.8 | 14% | 100% | 0% |
| Sp Braga | 54.8 | 0.0% | 37% | 0% |
| Academico Viseu | 54.1 | 0% | 31% | 0% |
| Santa Clara | 50.7 | 0% | 14% | 0% |
| Arouca | 48.3 | 0% | 8% | 0% |
| Gil Vicente | 47.6 | 0% | 6% | 0% |
| Famalicão | 44.9 | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Vitória SC | 42.5 | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Alverca | 40.2 | 0% | 1% | 8% |
| Moreirense | 39.3 | 0% | 0% | 10% |
| Estrela | 34.9 | 0% | 0% | 29% |
| Nacional | 33.5 | 0% | 0% | 38% |
| Maritimo | 32.2 | 0% | 0% | 48% |
| Casa Pia | 31.4 | 0% | 0% | 54% |
| Estoril | 31.4 | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Rio Ave | 31.0 | 0% | 0% | 56% |
Finishing position chances
Darker squares are likelier finishing positions; numbers are percentages.
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 47 | 33 | 19 | |||||||||||||||
| Benfica | 39 | 38 | 23 | |||||||||||||||
| Sporting CP | 14 | 29 | 55 | |||||||||||||||
| Sp Braga | 35 | 24 | 15 | 10 | 7 | |||||||||||||
| Academico Viseu | 30 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 8 | |||||||||||||
| Santa Clara | 13 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | |||||||||||
| Arouca | 8 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 12 | 9 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Gil Vicente | 6 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Famalicão | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Vitória SC | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||
| Alverca | 8 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 6 | ||||||||||
| Moreirense | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Estrela | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 7 | |||||||||
| Nacional | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | ||||||||||
| Maritimo | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | |||||||||||
| Casa Pia | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 20 | |||||||||||
| Estoril | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | |||||||||||
| Rio Ave | 8 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 18 | 23 |